The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday agreed to raise their crude oil production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, as part of efforts to expand their market share amid signs of a stable global economy.
A statement issued after an online meeting of the alliance said the decision was taken “in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories.”
The latest increase, which involves eight key members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Algeria — is smaller than the 500,000 bpd that some analysts had expected.
Analysts say the modest rise indicates caution within the group, which is balancing between stabilising prices and maintaining market dominance.
“OPEC+8 stepped carefully after witnessing how nervous the market had become,” said Jorge Leon, senior analyst at Rystad Energy. “The group is walking a tightrope between maintaining stability and clawing back market share in a surplus environment.”
Since April, the bloc has shifted its strategy from keeping prices high by limiting supply to pursuing a broader market share. The group’s cumulative quota increase has exceeded 2.5 million barrels per day in recent months.
The move comes at a time when global oil prices have been under pressure. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded below $65 per barrel on Friday, losing about 8 per cent in a week over fears of an aggressive OPEC+ supply surge.
Meanwhile, forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA) project global oil demand to rise by just 700,000 barrels per day between 2025 and 2026, while OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook, expecting a 1.3 million bpd increase in 2025 and another 1.4 million in 2026.
For Russia, the second-largest OPEC+ producer after Saudi Arabia, the moderate production rise is considered “manageable,” according to analysts. The country currently produces about 9.25 million bpd, slightly below its pre-war capacity of 10 million.
“Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have intensified since August, leading to an increase in crude oil exports as the fuel cannot be refined domestically,” noted Arne Lohmann Rasmussen of Global Risk Management.
With the latest decision, OPEC+ appears set to maintain its cautious strategy — seeking to strengthen market control without triggering another steep decline in global oil prices.